The UN Environment Programme published this roadmap in 2023 to inform the global plastics treaty negotiations, drawing on the Pew/SYSTEMIQ modelling and UNEP's own analysis.
It found that a shift to a circular economy could reduce plastic pollution by 80% by 2040. Reuse contributes a 30% cut, recycling 20% and substitution with alternative materials 17%. The transition would deliver net savings of up to USD 4.5 trillion by 2040 once environmental and health costs are counted, and create 700,000 jobs, mostly in low-income countries.
UNEP also warned that every five-year delay adds 80 million tonnes of pollution by 2040.
The headline 80% depends on all measures being adopted globally and quickly; the report is a policy roadmap, not a forecast.