The Ellen MacArthur Foundation’s 2016 projection rests on an extrapolation its own source author did not endorse and a fish estimate later revised upwards.
- Authors / organisation
- Ellen MacArthur Foundation / World Economic Forum
- Year
- 2016
- Journal or publisher
- Ellen MacArthur Foundation
- Study type
- Institutional report
- Evidence strength
- Evidence: Contested
- Sample / scope
- Extrapolation of Jambeck 2015 and a 2008 fish-biomass estimate
- Key finding
- Projected 850 million tonnes of ocean plastic vs 812 million tonnes of fish by 2050; both inputs have since been qualified or revised by their authors.
- Headline number
- 'More plastic than fish by 2050' (unsupported)
- Caveats / how it is misquoted
- Avoid. Fish biomass estimate revised to billions of tonnes; the plastic projection was not endorsed by its source author. Use Lau 2020 instead. Written under Project MainStream, a World Economic Forum and Ellen MacArthur Foundation initiative led by the chief executives of nine global companies, with analytical support from McKinsey & Company.
- Open access
- Yes
- Verified on
- 22 September 2026
The Ellen MacArthur Foundation and World Economic Forum's 2016 report The New Plastics Economy produced two of the most repeated plastic soundbites: that a garbage truck of plastic enters the ocean every minute, and that by 2050 there will be more plastic than fish in the sea by weight.
The 'garbage truck a minute' equals the Jambeck 2015 mid-estimate of 8 million tonnes a year, which described 2010. The 'more plastic than fish' claim divided an extrapolated 2050 plastic figure (850 million tonnes) by a 2008 estimate of fish biomass (812 million tonnes). The author of the fish estimate later revised it to billions of tonnes, and Jenna Jambeck said she was not confident in the forward projection. Fact-checkers at Snopes and CBC have rated the claim unsupported.
The report itself was influential in launching the circular-economy approach to plastics, and its call for redesign, reuse and recycling remains sound.
Site guidance: avoid both soundbites. For the future, use Lau 2020: ocean inflow could nearly triple to 29 million tonnes a year by 2040.
