In its second Global Plastics Outlook, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) modelled how plastic use, waste and pollution would evolve to 2060 under a business-as-usual baseline and under two policy packages.
Under the baseline, plastic use rises from 460 million tonnes in 2019 to 1,231 million tonnes in 2060, and plastic waste from about 353 million tonnes to 1,014 million tonnes. Recycling improves only modestly, from 9% to 17% of waste, while half of all waste still goes to landfill in 2060. Leakage to the environment grows to 44 million tonnes a year.
The report matters because it shows that current trends and current commitments are nowhere near enough: the problem grows nearly threefold even with steady improvements in waste management.
Media often report this as 'production will triple'. The OECD baseline is about 2.7 times, so 'nearly triple' is accurate; 'triple' is a slight overstatement.